We’re only two-and-a-half months away from the Iowa primary, and the latest poll from Iowa should be devastating to every remaining campaign, with the exception of the frontrunner. Donald Trump’s fiercely loyal MAGA base says they are locked in on their candidate, and nothing is going to make them switch their vote before the Iowa caucus.
According to the latest Iowa Register Poll, 61% of Iowans who plan to vote for Donald Trump say they are immovable. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who are tied for second and trailing Trump by 27% in Iowa, both have much weaker support bases.
For DeSantis, 70% of people who currently plan to vote for him say they could be persuaded to switch their votes at the Iowa caucuses. For Nikki Haley, 74% of her base says they might support someone else.
Trump’s lead is virtually unchanged since the last Iowa Register Poll that was conducted in August. He’s climbed one percentage point since then and still holds a commanding plurality of the votes at 43%. DeSantis, who the Trump campaign is now calling ‘Rhonda Santis’ after #BootGate, has dropped 3 points since August. Nikki Haley has gained 10 points since then but failed to climb any higher than where she’s currently at.
Why does having a loyal support base locked in matter ahead of the first-in-the-nation primary? Because Iowa has those weird caucuses where people can switch their votes later on, or list second or third, or tenth choices. It’s all weird. We always have to wait until caucus night when some ambitious TV nerd explains the Iowa caucuses to us again. In a nutshell, though, what it means is that it looks like Trump is easily going to walk away with Iowa.
The 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses take place on January 15th.